Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14025

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.855). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14024, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14025
    29 Oct 2026, 11:11 UTC

    ATP6V1E1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionATP6V1E1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered471f3691aa7be363

    discovery+0.07 p=0.855 n=9

    replication+0.85 p=0.0034 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.855)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fafa77027496951db372cd8b…
    follows a1fdc2103b70…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14025: ATP6V1E1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.27 (p 0.281, n 18), 95% CI -0.23 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.17 to +0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATP6V1E1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.