Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13582

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.33, p 0.387). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13581, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13582
    29 Oct 2026, 01:39 UTC

    KLKB1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKLKB1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered99339c1dc2d6554d

    discovery+0.33 p=0.387 n=9

    replication-0.45 p=0.230 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.33, p 0.387)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    afd7fd50818a1e64f9af7af4…
    follows a4d665760ff6…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13582: KLKB1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.894, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.44. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.19 to +0.08, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KLKB1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.