Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13581

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.705). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13580, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13581
    29 Oct 2026, 01:39 UTC

    KLKB1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionKLKB1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered51748070a819038a

    discovery+0.15 p=0.705 n=9

    replication-0.10 p=0.802 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.705)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a4d665760ff66c0c4ef7f43f…
    follows 7fee9c23b3e7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13581: KLKB1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.956, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.13, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KLKB1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.