Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13485

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.57, p 0.111). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13484, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13485
    28 Oct 2026, 23:19 UTC

    TTYH1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTTYH1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredea5da392fade935f

    discovery-0.57 p=0.111 n=9

    replication-0.32 p=0.402 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.57, p 0.111)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    221d8fdae129a563af09c980…
    follows 9dacda40a421…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13485: TTYH1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.45 (p 0.060, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.02. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.044, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.55 to -0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.45 (p 0.060, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TTYH1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.