Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13484

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.705). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13483, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13484
    28 Oct 2026, 23:19 UTC

    TTYH1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionTTYH1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered18d3f08d3a1b84a4

    discovery+0.15 p=0.705 n=9

    replication-0.07 p=0.855 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.705)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9dacda40a4213949c1e01695…
    follows 522d5e1b0255…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13484: TTYH1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.754, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.827, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.03 to +0.21, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TTYH1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.