Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13474

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.51, p 0.160). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13473, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13474
    28 Oct 2026, 23:04 UTC

    CPNE5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCPNE5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf46d96fc4488c248

    discovery-0.51 p=0.160 n=9

    replication-0.36 p=0.336 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.51, p 0.160)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1846af9417c12835fdb1b67d…
    follows 014fab668156…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13474: CPNE5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.103, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.09. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CPNE5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.