Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13473

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.084). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13472, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13473
    28 Oct 2026, 23:02 UTC

    MCF2L

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMCF2L in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2154590ef11b0ec3

    discovery-0.61 p=0.084 n=9

    replication-0.49 p=0.186 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.084)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    014fab668156336523852a5a…
    follows f300f4d21001…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13473: MCF2L in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.53 (p 0.023, n 18), 95% CI -0.80 to -0.09. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.51 (p 0.032, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.65 (p 0.0033, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.64 to -0.47, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.53 (p 0.023, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MCF2L in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.