Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13368

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.964). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13367, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13368
    28 Oct 2026, 20:32 UTC

    GRAMD2B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGRAMD2B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered66ece2ae24dd8329

    discovery+0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    replication-0.18 p=0.648 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.964)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8f5ccc9d793e2a9943e4721c…
    follows 2f12bc62ff34…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13368: GRAMD2B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.13 (p 0.615, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.18, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GRAMD2B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.