Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13333

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.177). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13332, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13333
    28 Oct 2026, 19:41 UTC

    DTX2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDTX2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8c554eb98e8a15bd

    discovery-0.49 p=0.177 n=9

    replication-0.28 p=0.472 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.177)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cf31276b1df90e9c4f49d22e…
    follows 47cb8e4f71b2…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13333: DTX2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.103, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.09. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.055, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.66 (p 0.0031, n 18) vs -0.40 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DTX2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up DTX2 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (already registered)