Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13332

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.539). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13331, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13332
    28 Oct 2026, 19:41 UTC

    DTX2

    microglia, braak

    predictionDTX2 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2950a85f8ae2e62f

    discovery-0.24 p=0.539 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.539)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    47cb8e4f71b2b4588d0a813c…
    follows 8919c8fc10b0…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13332: DTX2 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.800, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.08, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.66 (p 0.0031, n 18) vs -0.06 in microglia. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DTX2 in microglia.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up DTX2 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.32 p 0.248 (needs p < 1.7e-4)