Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13162

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.517). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13161, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13162
    28 Oct 2026, 15:47 UTC

    LHX2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLHX2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda249d4358eed15c6

    discovery-0.25 p=0.517 n=9

    replication-0.88 p=0.0020 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.517)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    899883f57c0a1924a9b1f6e0…
    follows 9ac9d2774e4a…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13162: LHX2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.087, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.41 (p 0.087, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.57 (p 0.014, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.59 to -0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.087, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LHX2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.