Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13161

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.840). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13160, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13161
    28 Oct 2026, 15:47 UTC

    LHX2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionLHX2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7d2b1acf2fae991c

    discovery+0.08 p=0.840 n=9

    replication+0.82 p=0.0068 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.840)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9ac9d2774e4a29c79de03770…
    follows 3907b43d8032…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13161: LHX2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.28 (p 0.269, n 18), 95% CI -0.22 to +0.66. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.34 (p 0.164, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.18 to +0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LHX2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.