Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13128

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.874). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13127, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13128
    28 Oct 2026, 15:02 UTC

    SPOCK1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSPOCK1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6fde1dcf376551d9

    discovery-0.06 p=0.874 n=9

    replication-0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.874)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    14cd1dffb860ae3045713c1b…
    follows 634bb9dc8f4d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13128: SPOCK1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.16 (p 0.538, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.31 to -0.06, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.538, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SPOCK1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.