Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13127

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13126, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13127
    28 Oct 2026, 15:02 UTC

    SPOCK1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSPOCK1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7a45db54cd71371d

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication-0.46 p=0.216 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    634bb9dc8f4d3a3569eb60f6…
    follows 9cb9cf290acb…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13127: SPOCK1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.34 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SPOCK1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.