Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13103

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.27, p 0.487). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13102, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13103
    28 Oct 2026, 14:26 UTC

    NKX2-2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNKX2-2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfdf90dc2480ac558

    discovery+0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    replication+0.33 p=0.385 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.27, p 0.487)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3b0e690564bcc30f11a16f83…
    follows 4db75779ccbb…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13103: NKX2-2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.37 (p 0.135, n 18), 95% CI -0.12 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.40 (p 0.099, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.39 (p 0.105, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.29 to +0.47, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NKX2-2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.