Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13102

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.946). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13101, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13102
    28 Oct 2026, 14:26 UTC

    NKX2-2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionNKX2-2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2772bdd661074670

    discovery-0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    replication+0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.946)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4db75779ccbb4255fc94988a…
    follows 6ead1acad3e0…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13102: NKX2-2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.874, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.16, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NKX2-2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.