Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12905

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.414). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12904, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12905
    28 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC

    CASKIN2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCASKIN2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede5f5070afd7c9e4b

    discovery+0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    replication-0.06 p=0.888 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.414)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    75b6361c272d2ae4f3873673…
    follows 744a865b163e…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12905: CASKIN2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.07 (p 0.787, n 18), 95% CI -0.41 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.22, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CASKIN2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.