Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12904

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.41, p 0.276). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12903, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12904
    28 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC

    CASKIN2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionCASKIN2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0d26980c5e27f7b3

    discovery-0.41 p=0.276 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.262 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.41, p 0.276)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    744a865b163efe2adb049ef7…
    follows 3e71a278657c…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12904: CASKIN2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.48 (p 0.042, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.02. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.54 (p 0.022, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.59 to -0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.48 (p 0.042, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CASKIN2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.