Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12850

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.946). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12849, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12850
    28 Oct 2026, 08:54 UTC

    DPF3

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionDPF3 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8ae1bb0f29d917b6

    discovery-0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    replication-0.63 p=0.068 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.946)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9fb142ebb301ea5ea4706778…
    follows 1e199ddc9bfe…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12850: DPF3 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.44 (p 0.067, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.03. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.44 (p 0.069, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.49 (p 0.039, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.44 (p 0.067, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DPF3 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.