Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12849

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.128). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12848, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12849
    28 Oct 2026, 08:51 UTC

    BBX

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBBX in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered53811fe85c5aa7f0

    discovery+0.55 p=0.128 n=9

    replication+0.13 p=0.732 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.55, p 0.128)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1e199ddc9bfe04704b8067e4…
    follows d71e6b7810a0…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12849: BBX in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.33 (p 0.188, n 18), 95% CI -0.17 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.25 to +0.49, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.33 (p 0.188, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BBX in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.