Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12851

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.240). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12850, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12851
    28 Oct 2026, 08:54 UTC

    DPF3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDPF3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb9e7166b3372aee4

    discovery-0.44 p=0.240 n=9

    replication+0.32 p=0.399 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.240)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2737ede9e93b7c9455ebc4cc…
    follows 9fb142ebb301…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12851: DPF3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.25 (p 0.310, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.261, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.35 to -0.16, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DPF3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.