Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12760

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12759, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12760
    28 Oct 2026, 06:46 UTC

    LSAMP

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionLSAMP in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcfcc295aafe05246

    discovery-0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication+0.13 p=0.735 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c40bbc8e8fdbbe243fbb1fce…
    follows 101477716d18…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12760: LSAMP in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.06 (p 0.827, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.14, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LSAMP in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.