Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12759

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.232). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12758, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12759
    28 Oct 2026, 06:43 UTC

    GPRC5C

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGPRC5C in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredccba321e435970a7

    discovery-0.44 p=0.232 n=9

    replication-0.27 p=0.484 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.44, p 0.232)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    101477716d18aa202f525a7a…
    follows 900c2d628226…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12759: GPRC5C in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.235, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.27 (p 0.285, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.36 (p 0.145, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPRC5C in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.