Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12505

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.309). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12504, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12505
    28 Oct 2026, 01:41 UTC

    MAP4K1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAP4K1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb25525eaa6b1fcdd

    discovery-0.38 p=0.309 n=9

    replication-0.58 p=0.104 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.309)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    275a82985116835d2a4e2aa6…
    follows f28ec25a6400…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12505: MAP4K1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.39 (p 0.105, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.09. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.075, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.029, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.54 to -0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.39 (p 0.105, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAP4K1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.