Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12504

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.502). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12503, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12504
    28 Oct 2026, 01:41 UTC

    MAP4K1

    microglia, braak

    predictionMAP4K1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb1db22401cc31f8c

    discovery-0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    replication-0.07 p=0.859 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.502)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f28ec25a6400b164ebc47415…
    follows 72e5c6ebf828…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12504: MAP4K1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.591, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.30 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.591, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAP4K1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.