Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12372

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12371, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12372
    27 Oct 2026, 22:45 UTC

    GPC5

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionGPC5 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredca8f51acf1b2081e

    discovery-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication+0.24 p=0.537 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    92b5a90150a948cea5f9d20d…
    follows fb8e18fd3c36…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12372: GPC5 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.20 (p 0.424, n 18), 95% CI -0.29 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.465, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.24 (p 0.337, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.11 to +0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPC5 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.