Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12371

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.197). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12370, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12371
    27 Oct 2026, 22:42 UTC

    CAVIN2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCAVIN2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredafc3e55904632d3f

    discovery+0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    replication+0.22 p=0.563 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.197)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fb8e18fd3c36b8ccc465b753…
    follows 8239199a4ec0…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12371: CAVIN2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.40 (p 0.099, n 18), 95% CI -0.08 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.40 (p 0.099, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.34 to +0.58, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.40 (p 0.099, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CAVIN2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.