Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12373

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.76 p 0.019; held-out -0.05 p 0.893). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12372, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12373
    27 Oct 2026, 22:45 UTC

    GPC5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGPC5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda774fba945c39dca

    discovery+0.76 p=0.019 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.76 p 0.019; held-out -0.05 p 0.893)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    c7fab614c84f22181cc2747d…
    follows 92b5a90150a9…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12373: GPC5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.36 (p 0.137, n 18), 95% CI -0.12 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.36 (p 0.142, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.31 to +0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.36 (p 0.137, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPC5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.