Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12064

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.445). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12063, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12064
    27 Oct 2026, 15:45 UTC

    GOLGA8A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGOLGA8A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6b11390476001ca3

    discovery+0.29 p=0.445 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.891 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.445)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    76513bba63299e2d9d88ab74…
    follows 61b9730c9832…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12064: GOLGA8A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18), 95% CI -0.31 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: +0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18) vs +0.18 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GOLGA8A in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up GOLGA8A · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.25 p 0.374 (needs p < 1.8e-4)