Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12063

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.40, p 0.292). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12062, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12063
    27 Oct 2026, 15:45 UTC

    GOLGA8A

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionGOLGA8A in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc4f018c37b7192d9

    discovery+0.40 p=0.292 n=9

    replication+0.69 p=0.042 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.40, p 0.292)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    61b9730c98324950ba6a5139…
    follows edb2999882ca…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12063: GOLGA8A in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18), 95% CI +0.20 to +0.84. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.59 (p 0.0099, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.55 (p 0.018, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.57 to +0.85, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GOLGA8A in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.