Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11814

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11813, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11814
    27 Oct 2026, 10:13 UTC

    ST3GAL5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionST3GAL5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd1015d9857cd3424

    discovery-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.907 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    027ded9af4b09a8f020dc9f0…
    follows 3c36a9434750…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11814 (2026-10-27 10:13 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11814: ST3GAL5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.754, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.23 to +0.05, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.76 (p 2.7e-4, n 18) vs -0.08 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ST3GAL5 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ST3GAL5 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (already registered)