Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11813

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.576). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11812, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11813
    27 Oct 2026, 10:13 UTC

    ST3GAL5

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionST3GAL5 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered92dc968481b939dc

    discovery-0.22 p=0.576 n=9

    replication+0.30 p=0.426 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.576)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3c36a9434750daa62ee7d67c…
    follows 8d9f3f9cb3ad…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11814 (2026-10-27 10:13 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11813: ST3GAL5 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.05 (p 0.854, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.20, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.76 (p 2.7e-4, n 18) vs +0.05 in oligodendrocytes. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ST3GAL5 in oligodendrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ST3GAL5 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.57 p 0.041 (needs p < 1.9e-4)