Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11614

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.725). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11613, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11614
    27 Oct 2026, 05:48 UTC

    ERBB3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionERBB3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered969b301c0cb09011

    discovery+0.14 p=0.725 n=9

    replication-0.74 p=0.024 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.725)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    03293190c38259f623a60176…
    follows 4fbe853776fb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11630 (2026-10-27 06:08 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11614: ERBB3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.748, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.05, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ERBB3 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.