Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11017

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.51, p 0.165). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11016, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11017
    26 Oct 2026, 16:42 UTC

    TIMM23B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTIMM23B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered04edf82a18b85a7a

    discovery+0.51 p=0.165 n=9

    replication+0.19 p=0.630 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.51, p 0.165)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2c64749338221d846834386f…
    follows 347a32772361…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11025 (2026-10-26 16:53 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11017: TIMM23B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.41 (p 0.087, n 18), 95% CI -0.07 to +0.74. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.37 (p 0.127, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.37 (p 0.127, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.34 to +0.53, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.41 (p 0.087, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: +0.68 (p 0.0018, n 18) vs +0.41 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TIMM23B in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up TIMM23B · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (already registered)