Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11016

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11015, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11016
    26 Oct 2026, 16:42 UTC

    TIMM23B

    microglia, braak

    predictionTIMM23B in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcdbb917b0a6d5169

    discovery-0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    347a3277236145e2d38d7d7c…
    follows 4e161041c8d5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11025 (2026-10-26 16:53 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11016: TIMM23B in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.36 (p 0.140, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.13. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.34 (p 0.164, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.48 to -0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.36 (p 0.140, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: +0.68 (p 0.0018, n 18) vs -0.36 in microglia. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TIMM23B in microglia.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up TIMM23B · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort: not measured