Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10940

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10939, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10940
    26 Oct 2026, 14:47 UTC

    ADGRA3

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionADGRA3 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8b64dbaa25c860ea

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication+0.02 p=0.962 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    30d5a5e9295ded2466913cf1…
    follows b241a44ef3f0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10945 (2026-10-26 14:53 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10940: ADGRA3 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.671, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.15, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ADGRA3 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.