Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10939

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.891). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10938, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10939
    26 Oct 2026, 14:45 UTC

    ARHGAP20

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARHGAP20 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcd91be3d9c5279eb

    discovery+0.05 p=0.891 n=9

    replication+0.62 p=0.078 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.891)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b241a44ef3f0322985ebeecb…
    follows dcb5a141d5ec…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10945 (2026-10-26 14:53 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10939: ARHGAP20 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.29 (p 0.239, n 18), 95% CI -0.20 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.27 (p 0.285, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.31 (p 0.218, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.21 to +0.49, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARHGAP20 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.