Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 10221

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.09, p 0.822). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 10220, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 10221
    25 Oct 2026, 23:31 UTC

    LRP6

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionLRP6 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda86f7be6a2ffd8d2

    discovery+0.09 p=0.822 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.09, p 0.822)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0e13c50731bc595a3fd39ac0…
    follows 947b21f325be…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 10221: LRP6 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.17 (p 0.504, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.06 to +0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in dopamine neurons: +0.69 (p 0.0016, n 18) vs +0.17 in oligodendrocytes. proposing dopamine neurons.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LRP6 in oligodendrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up LRP6 · dopamine neurons · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.32 p 0.248 (needs p < 2.1e-4)