Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9705

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.67 p 0.050; held-out +0.33 p 0.386). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9704, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9705
    25 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC

    NCAPD2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNCAPD2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc8825892f2e6161a

    discovery-0.67 p=0.050 n=9

    replication+0.33 p=0.386 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.67 p 0.050; held-out +0.33 p 0.386)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    009d05564245a2e7ff03d478…
    follows 91883391b08f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9705: NCAPD2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.62 (p 0.0064, n 18) vs -0.09 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NCAPD2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up NCAPD2 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.32 p 0.248 (needs p < 2.2e-4)