Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

NCAPD2

non-SMC condensin I complex subunit D2

translation score 0.38, read 2026-10-25; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.01 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells0.40
chemistry
Open Targets
hard to drug0.00
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
1 Parkinson's papers of 480.91
pathways
Reactome
1 pathway; mostly other0.30

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 9699

Sealed predictions

  1. NCAPD2 in dopamine neurons, braak-0.67 (p 0.050) → +0.33 (p 0.386)receipt 9705

Swarm cases

receipt 9705: NCAPD2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.62 (p 0.0064, n 18) vs -0.09 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NCAPD2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up NCAPD2 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.32 p 0.248 (needs p < 2.2e-4)

Receipts

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