Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0960

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.581). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 959, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0960
    17 Oct 2026, 10:41 UTC

    PLPP4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPLPP4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbaddf3fabfc2ef55

    discovery-0.21 p=0.581 n=9

    replication+0.10 p=0.790 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.581)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    47ac5b01d32e40f450c06a5e…
    follows d3f13592941d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0960: PLPP4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.901, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.44. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.15 to +0.09, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PLPP4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.