Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0959

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.436). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 958, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0959
    17 Oct 2026, 10:41 UTC

    PLPP4

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionPLPP4 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc42c67f3f7a01dea

    discovery+0.30 p=0.436 n=9

    replication+0.12 p=0.753 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.436)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d3f13592941d236ee2380236…
    follows eb4ae0ee6d8c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0959: PLPP4 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18), 95% CI -0.25 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.15 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PLPP4 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.