Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9555

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.873). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9554, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9555
    25 Oct 2026, 08:42 UTC

    PIK3C2B

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionPIK3C2B in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredce2ea949a313d459

    discovery-0.06 p=0.873 n=9

    replication-0.74 p=0.024 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.873)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    40dd392dc4ca9475e77def29…
    follows b0963f2b2c3d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9555: PIK3C2B in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.05. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.44 (p 0.070, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PIK3C2B in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.