Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9538

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9537, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9538
    25 Oct 2026, 08:20 UTC

    FMN2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionFMN2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5e38e7e93ff5ba13

    discovery-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.583 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8fef8629518b70ecbdd9abca…
    follows 055439d24a74…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9538: FMN2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.13 to +0.16, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FMN2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.