Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9487

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.631). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9486, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9487
    25 Oct 2026, 07:09 UTC

    TCP11L2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTCP11L2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered028ee685e2e47d0c

    discovery-0.19 p=0.631 n=9

    replication+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.631)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    886915bdc424a0ea82eaa92e…
    follows 998565b85889…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9487: TCP11L2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.393, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.35 to -0.14, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TCP11L2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.