Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9486

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.428). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9485, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9486
    25 Oct 2026, 07:09 UTC

    TCP11L2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionTCP11L2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered81b77da3523979ad

    discovery-0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    replication-0.21 p=0.584 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.428)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    998565b8588906fdb0b585b0…
    follows 1ad0d7c0928a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9486: TCP11L2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.182, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.289, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.38 (p 0.123, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.44 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.182, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TCP11L2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.