Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9366

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.474). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9365, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9366
    25 Oct 2026, 04:29 UTC

    CASKIN1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionCASKIN1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered900121c0d845cc23

    discovery-0.27 p=0.474 n=9

    replication-0.12 p=0.749 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.27, p 0.474)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1e6f8e1044a46f89e205210a…
    follows 76280b7dd0e6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9366: CASKIN1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.20 (p 0.434, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.11, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.20 (p 0.434, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CASKIN1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.