Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9359

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.639). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9358, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9359
    25 Oct 2026, 04:21 UTC

    SLC14A1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionSLC14A1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredaa4b5322e8317762

    discovery-0.18 p=0.639 n=9

    replication-0.12 p=0.749 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.639)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1412a26618c1806ca1ac1cd0…
    follows e20890563113…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9359: SLC14A1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.16 (p 0.532, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC14A1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.