Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9350

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.965). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9349, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9350
    25 Oct 2026, 04:10 UTC

    SEMA7A

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSEMA7A in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb2612cac3d90034c

    discovery+0.02 p=0.965 n=9

    replication-0.87 p=0.0025 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.965)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    545b0198d184c82e6258607f…
    follows 3e5c0939845b…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9350: SEMA7A in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.59 (p 0.0092, n 18), 95% CI -0.83 to -0.18. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.60 (p 0.0080, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.63 (p 0.0047, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.67 to -0.54, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.59 (p 0.0092, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SEMA7A in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.