Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 9240

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.334). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 9239, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 9240
    25 Oct 2026, 02:24 UTC

    TMEM106A

    microglia, braak

    predictionTMEM106A in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5916a57018fd12bc

    discovery+0.37 p=0.334 n=9

    replication-0.50 p=0.166 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.334)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fbffe50a2a0d1f527b01db6d…
    follows 3f16c9087725…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 9240: TMEM106A in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.398, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM106A in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.